---
title: "SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Fundamentals Report · Feb 8, 2026"
author: "DeepValues Research"
publisher: "DeepValues Research (DeepValues / LuLu Ventures LLC)"
type: "Deep Value Intelligence component report"
ticker: "SPY"
company: "SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust"
date: "2026-02-08"
language: "en"
section: "Company Research"
canonical_url: "https://research.deepvalues.ai/company/spy/2026-02-08-fundamentals-report/"
markdown_url: "https://research.deepvalues.ai/company/spy/2026-02-08-fundamentals-report/index.md"
license: "CC BY 4.0"
license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
cite_as: "DeepValues Research, SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) Fundamentals Report · Feb 8, 2026, https://research.deepvalues.ai/company/spy/2026-02-08-fundamentals-report/"
publisher_url: "https://deepvalues.ai"
app: "https://deepvalues.ai"
api: "https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers"
data_note: "Reports are dated snapshots. Current data via the DeepValues API: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers"
disclaimer: "Educational research, not investment advice."
---
To conduct a comprehensive 10-year historical analysis of **SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust)** as of February 8, 2026, we examine the aggregate fundamental performance of the S&P 500 index. As a trust tracking the index, SPY’s fundamentals reflect the weighted average of the 500 largest U.S. companies.

### **1. 10-Year Comprehensive Historical Data Table (2016–2025)**

The following data represents the aggregate metrics of the S&P 500 index constituents, which SPY tracks. Figures are based on fiscal year-end reports as of February of the subsequent year.

| Metric | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 (Est) |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Market Price (SPY)** | $229.01 | $268.10 | $270.20 | $332.20 | $390.51 | $447.20 | $410.50 | $495.10 | $600.20 | **$690.62** |
| **Total AUM (Market Cap)** | $225B | $270B | $270B | $310B | $360B | $410B | $370B | $500B | $600B | **$633B** |
| **P/E Ratio (Trailing)** | 21.4x | 22.4x | 18.8x | 22.1x | 39.7x | 24.1x | 21.8x | 24.2x | 26.1x | **27.38x** |
| **P/B Ratio** | 3.01 | 3.21 | 3.15 | 3.62 | 4.18 | 4.52 | 3.92 | 4.68 | 4.90 | **5.05** |
| **Return on Equity (ROE)** | 14.2% | 14.8% | 17.8% | 18.4% | 14.8% | 20.1% | 24.1% | 18.5% | 24.8% | **25.1%** |
| **ROIC** | 11.5% | 11.8% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 15.4% | 16.0% | 14.2% | 17.2% | **18.0%** |
| **Net Profit Margin** | 10.1% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 12.1% | **12.5%** |
| **Revenue Growth** | 4.0% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 15.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | **5.8%** |
| **EPS Growth** | 5.0% | 14.8% | 20.3% | 0.7% | 3.9% | 30.3% | -4.9% | 2.9% | 7.4% | **10.1%** |
| **FCF Growth** | -1.2% | 11.2% | 5.0% | -1.2% | 5.2% | 22.0% | 2.0% | -1.2% | 6.3% | **6.0%** |
| **Debt/Equity Ratio** | 108% | 110% | 112% | 114% | 115% | 110% | 112% | 115% | 110% | **108%** |
| **Div. Yield** | 2.01% | 1.88% | 2.08% | 1.79% | 1.47% | 1.32% | 1.58% | 1.38% | 1.24% | **1.21%** |
| **Aggregate Cash** | $1.5T | $1.6T | $1.6T | $1.5T | $1.9T | $3.7T | $1.6T | $1.7T | $2.1T | **$2.2T** |

---

### **2. Comparative Analysis: Current vs. 10-Year Average**

| Metric | Current (2025/26) | 10-Year Average | Comparison to Average |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **P/E Ratio** | 27.38x | 24.8x | **+10.4% (Expensive)** |
| **P/B Ratio** | 5.05 | 4.02 | **+25.6% (Overvalued)** |
| **Net Margin** | 12.5% | 11.3% | **+10.6% (Record Efficiency)** |
| **ROE** | 25.1% | 19.2% | **+30.7% (High Capital Efficiency)** |
| **Div. Yield** | 1.21% | 1.59% | **-23.8% (Historic Lows)** |

**Analysis of Trends:**
*   **Valuation Expansion:** SPY is trading at the higher end of its historical P/E and P/B ranges. The multiple expansion from ~21x in 2016 to ~27x in 2026 reflects the market's willingness to pay a premium for secular growth in Technology and AI.
*   **Profitability Resilience:** Despite rising interest rates (2022-2024), aggregate net margins and ROE have actually *improved*. This is driven by "Big Tech" (the Magnificent Seven) which maintains high-margin software revenue and massive cash piles.
*   **Dividend Compression:** The dividend yield has fallen to ~1.2%, largely because price appreciation ($229 to $690) has significantly outpaced dividend growth.

---

### **3. Warren Buffett Value Investing Analysis**

*   **Economic Moat:** SPY holds a **"Collective Moat."** By owning the 500 largest U.S. companies, it captures the combined pricing power and brand strength of global leaders (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon). Its structural moat is its **Liquidity**; as the most traded ETF, its bid-ask spreads are unbeatable.
*   **Financial Strength:** Aggregate balance sheets are fortress-like. The S&P 500 holds ~$2.2 Trillion in cash. Interest coverage remains high (~8.2x) despite higher debt costs, as many constituents locked in low rates during 2020-2021.
*   **Predictable Earnings:** SPY offers the most predictable earnings growth in the world due to diversification. While individual sectors (Energy, Materials) are volatile, the index as a whole has grown EPS at a 10-year CAGR of ~8-9%.
*   **Management Performance:** Corporate management has become increasingly focused on capital allocation efficiency. Record levels of share buybacks (~$900B+ annually) have effectively boosted ROE and EPS growth.
*   **Quality of Business:** Revenue predictability is high, though current concentration in the top 10 holdings (~32%) creates a "dependency risk" on the tech sector.

---

### **4. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis**

To value SPY, we treat the index as a single entity with a starting "Owner's Cash Flow" (FCF) per share of **$25.20** (Estimated from Price $690.62 / P/E 27.38).

**Parameters:**
*   **Discount Rate:** 10.0%
*   **Terminal Growth Rate:** 2.5%

#### **Scenario 1: CONSERVATIVE (Low Growth)**
*   **Growth Rate:** -1.2% (The lowest annual growth rate in the last 10 years)
*   **Calculation:** FCF decays or remains stagnant.
*   **Fair Value:** **$248.15** (Significant downside if growth turns negative permanently).

#### **Scenario 2: AVERAGE (Historic Mean)**
*   **Growth Rate:** 5.4% (The 10-year average FCF growth)
*   **Calculation:**
    *   Years 1-10: $25.20 * (1.054)^n
    *   Terminal Value: [CF10 * (1.025)] / (0.10 - 0.025)
*   **Fair Value:** **$462.80** (Suggests the current market price of $690 is ~49% overvalued relative to historical averages).

#### **Scenario 3: OPTIMISTIC (Peak Growth)**
*   **Growth Rate:** 22.0% (The highest growth rate seen in 2021)
*   **Calculation:** Assumes AI-driven hyper-productivity for 10 years.
*   **Fair Value:** **$1,482.10** (Justifies current price with massive room for growth).

---

### **5. Key Investment Insights & Red Flags**

*   **Opportunity:** SPY remains the most efficient vehicle for capturing U.S. economic growth and the AI revolution. The aggregate ROE of 25% indicates that the index is a "compounding machine."
*   **Red Flag - Concentration Risk:** The top 10 holdings now represent over 31% of the fund. If Big Tech faces antitrust or saturation issues, the entire index will suffer regardless of the "other 490" stocks.
*   **Red Flag - Valuation:** At 27x trailing earnings and 5x book value, SPY is in the 90th percentile of its historical valuation. It requires sustained 10%+ earnings growth to justify these levels.
*   **Opportunity - Efficiency:** Aggregate net margins are at historic highs (12.5%). Corporate America has successfully optimized labor and capital, a trend likely to continue with AI integration.

---

### **6. Final Investment Recommendation**

**FINAL TRANSACTION PROPOSAL: HOLD**

**Rationale:**
1.  **Valuation:** SPY is objectively **expensive** on a historical basis (P/E 27.38x vs 24.8x avg). The DCF "Average" scenario suggests a fair value of ~$463, while the current price is $690.
2.  **Momentum vs. Value:** While overvalued by Buffett standards, the "Quality" of the index has never been higher (ROE 25%). Selling would mean missing out on the dominant global tech trend, but buying here offers a poor margin of safety.
3.  **Income:** The 1.2% dividend yield is unattractive for income seekers, but sufficient for total-return investors.
4.  **Strategy:** For new capital, look for pullbacks to the $550-$600 range (20-22x P/E). For existing holders, **HOLD** to capture secular growth, but do not aggressively overweight at these multiples.

### **Summary Table**
| Key Metric | Status | Note |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **P/E Ratio** | High | 27.38x is near the top of the 10-year range. |
| **ROE** | Excellent | 25.1% indicates supreme capital efficiency. |
| **Concentration** | High | 31%+ in top 10 stocks; high dependency on Tech. |
| **Fair Value (Avg)** | $462.80 | Current price ($690) implies a growth premium. |
| **Recommendation** | **HOLD** | Quality is high, but the price offers no margin of safety. |