---
title: "Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview"
author: "DeepValues Research"
publisher: "DeepValues Research (DeepValues / LuLu Ventures LLC)"
type: "Research article"
date: "2026-02-20"
language: "en"
section: "Guru Attention"
answer: "DeepValues Research, “Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview” (Feb 20, 2026): The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a substantial expansion in Baupost’s reported equity assets and a dramatic shift in its mega-cap technology strategy."
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cite_as: "DeepValues Research, Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview, https://research.deepvalues.ai/gurus/13f-seth-klarman-and-the-baupost-group-q4-2025-portfolio-analysis/"
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---
# **Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview**

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Form 13F-HR filing submitted by The Baupost Group LLC/MA (CIK: 0001061768\) for the fourth quarter of 2025, covering the period ending December 31, 2025\.1 The filing was accepted by the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 13, 2026\.1

## **1.1 Executive Summary of Q4 2025 Activity**

The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a substantial expansion in Baupost’s reported equity assets and a dramatic shift in its mega-cap technology strategy.

* **Portfolio Value:** The reported value of Baupost’s 13F portfolio rose to **$5.28 billion**.1 This is an increase of roughly 11% from the $4.76 billion reported at the end of Q3 2025\.5  
* **Portfolio Concentration:** The portfolio remains highly concentrated among 22 total holdings.2 The top five positions—Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Amazon (AMZN), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), Elevance Health (ELV), and Union Pacific (UNP)—account for **43.73%** of the total portfolio value.2  
* **Key Thematic Shifts:**  
  1. **A Massive New Tech Anchor:** The defining move of the quarter was the initiation of a **$489.7 million** (9.28%) position in **Amazon (AMZN)**.2 Amazon instantly became Klarman’s second-largest holding, marking a significant return to the stock after having last held it in mid-2023.9  
  2. **Aggressive Scaling of Existing Favorites:** Klarman doubled down on several high-conviction ideas from the previous quarter, most notably increasing his stake in **Fiserv (FISV)** by **\+145.8%** and **Eagle Materials (EXP)** by **\+26.1%**.10  
  3. **The Great Infrastructure/Materials Harvest:** In a sharp reversal of the prior quarter's build-up, Klarman executed a massive **\-68.3%** cut to his position in **CRH PLC (CRH)**.10 He also trimmed other winners like **Alphabet (GOOG)** by **\-41.5%** and **Dollar General (DG)** by **\-22.7%**.10  
  4. **Healthcare Expansion:** While slightly trimming Elevance, Klarman added a new **$108.5 million** position in **Molina Healthcare (MOH)**, further diversifying his exposure to the managed care sector.10

## **1.2 Portfolio Dynamics: New Buys, Sells, Adds, and Trims (Q4 2025\)**

The following tables reconcile the changes between the Q3 2025 (ending Sept 30\) and Q4 2025 (ending Dec 31\) filings.

### **Table 1.2.1: New Positions Initiated (New Buys)**

These positions were initiated during the fourth quarter. The Amazon purchase is one of Klarman’s largest single-quarter buys in recent history.

| Ticker | Company | % of Portfolio | Shares | Value (USD) |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| **AMZN** | Amazon.com Inc. | 9.28% | 2,121,391 | $489,659,000 |
| **MOH** | Molina Healthcare Inc. | 2.05% | 625,000 | $108,463,000 |
| **AERO** | Grupo Aeromexico SAB | 2.02% | 4,855,180 | $106,620,000 |
| Source: 10 |  |  |  |  |

### **Table 1.2.2: Positions Liquidated (Sold Out)**

Klarman fully exited one position in the fourth quarter.

| Ticker | Company | Prior % of Portf. |
| :---- | :---- | :---- |
| **PAGS** | PagSeguro Digital Ltd | 0.52% |
| Source: 10 |  |  |

### **Table 1.2.3: Changes to Existing Holdings (Adds and Trims)**

| Ticker | Company | Action | % Share Change |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| **FISV** | Fiserv Inc. | **ADD** | \+145.81% |
| **EXP** | Eagle Materials Inc. | **ADD** | \+26.14% |
| **WTW** | Willis Towers Watson PLC | **ADD** | \+24.66% |
| **HLF** | Herbalife Ltd. | **ADD** | \+19.33% |
| **FIS** | Fidelity National Info Serv. | **ADD** | \+18.84% |
| **UNP** | Union Pacific Corp. | **ADD** | \+8.76% |
| **CRH** | CRH PLC | **TRIM** | \-68.29% |
| **LBTYA** | Liberty Global Ltd. (A) | **TRIM** | \-59.02% |
| **TBN** | Tamboran Resources Corp. | **TRIM** | \-54.94% |
| **GOOG** | Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | **TRIM** | \-41.49% |
| **DG** | Dollar General Corp. | **TRIM** | \-22.65% |
| **ANTM** | Elevance Health (ELV) | **TRIM** | \-3.77% |
| **QSR** | Restaurant Brands Intern. | **TRIM** | \-2.09% |
| Source: 10 |  |  |  |

## **1.3 Baupost Group Full Holdings (as of December 31, 2025\)**

### **Table 1.3.1: Complete 13F Holdings and Portfolio Allocation**

| Ticker | Company | % of Portfolio | Shares | Value (USD) |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| **QSR** | Restaurant Brands International | 10.44% | 8,080,112 | $551,325,000 |
| **AMZN** | Amazon.com Inc. | 9.28% | 2,121,391 | $489,659,000 |
| **WTW** | Willis Towers Watson PLC | 8.45% | 1,357,601 | $446,110,000 |
| **ELV** | Elevance Health (Formerly ANTM) | 8.43% | 1,269,302 | $444,954,000 |
| **UNP** | Union Pacific Corp. | 7.13% | 1,627,254 | $376,416,000 |
| **WCC** | Wesco International Inc. | 6.58% | 1,415,651 | $347,100,000 |
| **GOOG** | Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | 6.46% | 1,087,181 | $341,157,000 |
| **FIS** | Fidelity National Info Serv. | 5.67% | 4,503,801 | $299,323,000 |
| **DG** | Dollar General Corp. | 5.19% | 2,062,821 | $273,881,000 |
| **FERG** | Ferguson Enterprises Inc. | 4.80% | 1,137,035 | $253,138,000 |
| **EXP** | Eagle Materials Inc. | 4.64% | 1,185,248 | $244,967,000 |
| **LBTYK** | Liberty Global Ltd. (Class C) | 4.37% | 20,884,781 | $230,568,000 |
| **GPC** | Genuine Parts Co. | 3.46% | 1,486,088 | $182,729,000 |
| **FISV** | Fiserv Inc. | 2.80% | 2,200,000 | $147,774,000 |
| **CRH** | CRH PLC | 2.54% | 1,072,957 | $133,905,000 |
| **HLF** | Herbalife Ltd. | 2.26% | 9,259,844 | $119,359,000 |
| **MOH** | Molina Healthcare Inc. | 2.05% | 625,000 | $108,463,000 |
| **AERO** | Grupo Aeromexico SAB | 2.02% | 4,855,180 | $106,620,000 |
| **GDS** | GDS Holdings Ltd \- ADR | 2.01% | 3,044,818 | $106,264,000 |
| **COLD** | Americold Realty Trust | 0.85% | 3,475,685 | $44,697,000 |
| **LBTYA** | Liberty Global Ltd. (Class A) | 0.44% | 2,080,456 | $23,176,000 |
| **TBN** | Tamboran Resources Corp. | 0.13% | 257,226 | $7,004,000 |
| Source: 1 |  |  |  |  |

# ---

**Section 2: Strategy Analysis and "Battle of the Oracles" Update**

## **2.1 The New Tech Divide: Klarman Buys Amazon as Buffett Sells**

In Q3 2025, the market focused on their divergence over Alphabet. In Q4 2025, a new and sharper divergence emerged regarding **Amazon (AMZN)**.13

* **Klarman's Bullish Re-entry:** Baupost "piled into" Amazon, making it the fund's second-largest holding at 9.28% of assets.9 Klarman likely sees "intriguing value" in Amazon's high-margin segments—AWS and advertising—where growth is accelerating.9 By late 2025, Amazon was valued at roughly 21x forward earnings, which represents a compelling valuation for a dual-industry leader in e-commerce and cloud infrastructure.9  
* **Buffett’s Massive Exit:** Conversely, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slashed its Amazon stake by **\-77%** during the same quarter, reducing its holding from 10 million shares to just 2.27 million.13  
* **Analysis:** This highlights a shift in "Margin of Safety" definitions. Buffett appears to be rotating out of a stock that has realized significant gains, while Klarman is rotating *in*, betting that the market is still underestimating the AI-driven upside for AWS, which grew sales by 13% in Q3.15

## **2.2 The Rotation of "Winners"**

Klarman's Q4 activity was characterized by a "ringing of the register" on previous high-conviction bets that hit their value targets.

* **The CRH Liquidation:** After championing CRH’s U.S. listing and infrastructure moat in previous quarters, Klarman cut the position by **\-68%**.10 This suggests the "re-rating" he anticipated has likely occurred, and he is recycling that capital into newer ideas like Amazon and Molina Healthcare.10  
* **The Continued Alphabet Pare-down:** For the second consecutive quarter, Klarman slashed his **GOOG** stake (this time by **\-41.5%**).9 While he remains a long-term believer in the company’s fundamentals, the stock doubled in price between May 2025 and year-end, leading to a "disciplined profit-taking" move as the valuation hit 23x forward earnings.9

# ---

**Section 3: Buffett-Style Analysis of Top Holdings**

## **3.1 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) (9.28% of Portfolio; New Holding)**

### **Business & Economic Moat**

* **Moat Assessment: Wide** 15 Amazon possesses a multi-layered moat consisting of **Network Effects** (marketplace), **Cost Advantages** (massive logistical scale), and **High Switching Costs** (AWS infrastructure and Prime ecosystem).9  
* **Moat Trend: Widening.** AWS is increasingly integrated with generative AI and large language models (LLMs), which drove 48% revenue growth in its cloud-related segments in Q4 2025\.9

### **Management & Capital Allocation**

* **Capital Allocation:** Management remains focused on high-margin reinvestment. Operating cash flow grew 36.8% YoY to $35.53 billion by Q3 2025\.15 The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $66.9 billion in cash and zero short-term debt.15

### **Valuation & Margin of Safety**

* **Valuation:** Klarman’s re-entry at 21x forward EPS suggests he believes the market is underpricing the "foundational cash cow" potential of AWS.9 Analysts have a median price target of **$295.05**, implying roughly 20% upside from year-end levels.15

## **3.2 Restaurant Brands International (QSR) (10.44% of Portfolio; \-2.1% Trim)**

### **Business & Economic Moat**

* **Moat Assessment: Narrow.** Moat is built on iconic brands (Burger King, Tim Hortons) and an asset-light franchise model.16

### **Management & Financials**

* **Financial Health:** The primary "un-Buffett" trait is the high leverage, with a Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio over 6.0x.16  
* **Baupost's View:** Despite the high debt, Klarman maintained this as his \#1 position, betting on the successful execution of the 5-year growth plan through 2028\.16

## **3.3 Elevance Health (ELV) (8.43% of Portfolio; \-3.8% Trim)**

### **Business & Economic Moat**

* **Moat Assessment: Wide.** Derived from massive scale (117M members) and the regulatory "moat" of BCBS licenses.16

### **Financials & Valuation**

* **Financial Health:** ROE of 13.3% and a strong $199B TTM revenue.17  
* **Valuation:** Remains deeply undervalued from a Buffett perspective. Trading at a P/E of **13.8x** 17, it is significantly below its intrinsic value, estimated by some DCF models at **$588.8** (implying 70%+ undervaluation).18

## **3.4 Union Pacific (UNP) (7.13% of Portfolio; \+8.8% Add)**

### **Business & Economic Moat**

* **Moat Assessment: Wide.** A textbook natural duopoly with a 30,000-mile network that is impossible to replicate.19

### **Management & Profitability**

* **Capital Allocation:** Management recently signed a record **$1.2 billion** locomotive modernization deal, signaling a focus on long-term efficiency and "moat maintenance".20  
* **Financials:** Boasts a 40.9% operating margin and an exceptional **40.4% Return on Equity**.22 It trades at a 21.7x P/E, which analysts view as fair for a "wonderful company".22

## **3.5 Fiserv Inc. (FISV) (2.80% of Portfolio; \+145.8% Add)**

### **Business & Economic Moat**

* **Moat Assessment: Narrow to Wide.** Moat is built on extreme **Customer Switching Costs**; as the "central nervous system" for bank processing, switching is risky and expensive.23

### **Financials & Valuation**

* **Profitability:** Strong operating margins of **28.7%** and a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.88.24  
* **The Catalyst:** The stock faced a 5% decline in late 2025 due to weaker 2026 guidance, creating a "bargain" entry point for Klarman to more than double his stake at an attractive cash flow yield of **14%**.25

# ---

**Section 4: Concluding Analysis**

The Q4 2025 filing shows Seth Klarman evolving his "physical world" infrastructure theme into a "digital infrastructure" theme. By rotating out of **CRH** and **Alphabet** and aggressively into **Amazon** and **Fiserv**, he is targeting wide-moat, cash-generative technology and payment platforms that are currently trading at lower multiples than the broader high-growth AI sector.  
Klarman remains a "Value Realizer," harvesting massive gains in Alphabet and CRH to fund new, high-conviction bets in sectors where he sees "asymmetric risk/reward" (Amazon and Elevance Health).26 His portfolio remains a hybrid of Buffett-style quality and Klarman-style opportunistic value.

#### **Works cited**

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