---
title: "macro-valuation dashboard"
author: "DeepValues Research"
publisher: "DeepValues Research (DeepValues / LuLu Ventures LLC)"
type: "Research article"
date: "2026-02-19"
language: "en"
section: "Market Vibes"
answer: "DeepValues Research, “macro-valuation dashboard” (Feb 19, 2026): Here's a quick, current \"macro-valuation dashboard\" (U.S. market) - all values as of today (Oct 31, 2025, PT), with sources:."
canonical_url: "https://research.deepvalues.ai/market/macro-valuation-dashboard/"
markdown_url: "https://research.deepvalues.ai/market/macro-valuation-dashboard/index.md"
license: "CC BY 4.0"
license_url: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"
cite_as: "DeepValues Research, macro-valuation dashboard, https://research.deepvalues.ai/market/macro-valuation-dashboard/"
publisher_url: "https://deepvalues.ai"
app: "https://deepvalues.ai"
api: "https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers"
data_note: "Reports are dated snapshots. Current data via the DeepValues API: https://app.deepvalues.ai/developers"
disclaimer: "Educational research, not investment advice."
---
Here's a quick, current "macro-valuation dashboard" (U.S. market) - all values as of today (Oct 31, 2025, PT), with sources:

-   **Buffett Indicator (TMC / GDP): \~217%-223%** (CMV's quarterly model: **217%** and **"Strongly Overvalued"**; GuruFocus daily: **223.1%** and "Significantly Overvalued").

-   **Shiller CAPE (CAPE10): \~40-41** (Multpl shows **40.74**; long-run mean **\~17.3**, median **\~16.1**).

-   **VIX (spot): \~17.0** (Cboe live page lists **$17.01** intraday; FRED close yesterday **16.91**).

-   **10-Year U.S. Treasury yield:** **\~4.08%** (latest daily from FRED).

-   **High-Yield credit spread (ICE BofA HY OAS):** **\~2.8%** (late-Oct prints).

-   **10y-3m yield curve:** **\~+0.2% (slightly positive)** after a long inversion.

-   **S&P 500 forward P/E:** **22.7×** → forward earnings yield ≈ **4.41%** (FactSet).

-   **S&P 500 dividend yield:** **\~1.15%** (late-Oct).

-   **10-yr breakeven inflation (market-implied):** **\~2.29%**.

-   **AAII sentiment (this week):** Bulls **\~44%**, Neutrals **\~19%**, Bears **\~37%** (optimism up w/w).

### **What this means for value investors (now)**

-   **Valuation headwinds:** A Buffett Indicator >200% and CAPE ≈40 sit in the top decile of history. That combo has *historically* preceded lower 5-10-yr real returns for broad indices, so margin-of-safety demands should be higher.

-   **Risk pricing still easy:** VIX \~17 and HY OAS \~2.8% say "complacent/benign" credit & vol regimes-fine until they aren't. Be careful paying peak multiples for cyclical or levered names.

-   **Skinny equity risk premium:** Forward E-yield (\~4.41%) minus the 10-yr (\~4.08%) ≈ **0.33%**-thin compensation versus Treasuries at the index level. Stock-picking (quality cash flows, durable moats, non-consensus cash-return paths) matters more than beta.

-   **Curve only barely positive:** The 10y-3m spread has just turned slightly >0. A soft-landing is possible, but the slope is shallow-growth sensitivity remains. Keep underwriting with conservative cycle assumptions.

-   **Sentiment not washed-out:** AAII shows moderate optimism (bull-bear spread positive). This isn't the kind of fear that usually hands value investors broad bargains.

**Practical playbook (brief):**

-   Hunt in **idiosyncratic** value (special situations, capital return stories, under-earning quality) rather than paying up for broad market exposure.

-   Demand **clear cash economics** (owner's earnings, reinvestment runway, pricing power) and avoid stories dependent on multiple expansion.

-   Stay **valuation-disciplined**: underwrite with higher discount rates and lower terminal multiples, given the skinny ERP and rich starting CAPE.

-   Use **credit & vol** as risk dials: widening HY OAS or a jump in VIX can quickly change opportunity sets; have a watchlist and buy-levels ready.

If you want, I can keep a lightweight daily snapshot of these indicators for you (same sources) and flag when thresholds you care about are crossed.