Guru Attention Duan Yongping
H&H International Investment (Duan Yongping) Q3 2025 Portfolio Analysis: A Deep Dive into High-Conviction Value Investing
In brief
DeepValues Research, “H&H International Investment (Duan Yongping) Q3 2025 Portfolio Analysis: A Deep Dive into High-Conviction Value Investing” (Feb 19, 2026): This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Q3 2025 investment portfolio of H&H International Investment, LLC, the U.S. investment vehicle managed by renowned investor Duan Yongping.
Source: https://research.deepvalues.ai/gurus/duan-yongping-13f-holdings-analysis/ · Markdown
Contents
- Executive Summary: The "Less than 1%" Investor
- H&H International Investment: Q3 2025 Portfolio Overview
- H&H International Investment Holdings (as of September 30, 2025)
- Analysis of Q3 2025 Portfolio Adjustments
- The New Position: ASML Holding (ASML)
- The Major Increase: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
- The Significant Trims: Rebalancing Valuation and Risk
- Deep Dive: A Buffett-Style Analysis of H&H Holdings
- Part 1: The Core Convictions (78.2% of Portfolio)
- Part 2: The E-Commerce & Energy Bets (15.5% of Portfolio)
- Part 3: The "Big Tech" Foundation (4.75% of Portfolio)
- Part 4: The Thematic Satellites (2.34% of Portfolio)
- Conclusion: A Portfolio of Conviction and Patience
Executive Summary: The "Less than 1%" Investor#
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Q3 2025 investment portfolio of H&H International Investment, LLC, the U.S. investment vehicle managed by renowned investor Duan Yongping. The analysis is grounded in his own frequently stated investment philosophy: "Buying stocks is buying companies". This core principle, which he has suggested "less than 1% of people truly understand," informs a strategy focused on deep business understanding, durable competitive advantages, and long-term holding periods, rather than short-term market speculation.
As of September 30, 2025, the H&H portfolio disclosed 11 U.S.-listed stocks with a total market value of $14.68 billion. The portfolio is a masterclass in high-conviction, Buffett-influenced investing, defined by its extreme concentration-a characteristic Duan Yongping has long embraced.
The key strategic moves during the third quarter of 2025 reveal a clear and rational reallocation of capital :
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Initiating a "Fortress Moat": A new position was established in ASML Holding (ASML). This represents a foundational, long-term bet on the "core semiconductor equipment" that underpins the entire global technology sector, as ASML is the sole supplier of essential EUV lithography machines.
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Doubling Down on "Fortress Capital": The holding in Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) was significantly increased. This move appears to be a classic contrarian, value-oriented play, capitalizing on short-term market weakness following Warren Buffett's retirement announcement.
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Pruning Risk and Valuation: Significant reductions of over 25% were made in Alibaba (BABA) and NVIDIA (NVDA). Trims were also made to PDD Holdings (PDD) and Apple (AAPL).
These adjustments are not a simple "tech vs. value" rotation. Instead, they represent a calculated flight to certainty. The trades show a clear pattern of trimming positions where the certainty of the thesis has weakened-due to high valuation (NVDA), intense competition (PDD), or geopolitical and regulatory risk (BABA). That capital was then rotated into what are arguably two of the most certain and durable business models in the world: an absolute monopoly (ASML) and the ultimate capital allocation machine (Berkshire Hathaway). This active, disciplined rebalancing reflects Duan's own maxim: "We are who we are because of the things we didn't do". In this case, he did not chase market hype at any price, nor did he hold on to a deteriorating business thesis.
H&H International Investment: Q3 2025 Portfolio Overview#
This analysis is based on the Form 13F-HR filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission by H&H International Investment, LLC (CIK: 0001759760). The report covers the period ending September 30, 2025, and was made public on or around November 14, 2025. This is the "latest" filing and the definitive source for this report.
The portfolio consists of 11 positions with a total market value of $14,678,516,884. It is characterized by an extraordinary level of concentration. The top holding, Apple Inc., accounts for 60.42% of the portfolio's total value. The top two holdings, Apple and Berkshire Hathaway, together comprise 78.2% of the portfolio, demonstrating an immense level of conviction in these two businesses.
H&H International Investment Holdings (as of September 30, 2025)#
The following table details the full 11-stock portfolio held by H&H International Investment as of the end of the third quarter of 2025, including the changes made during that quarter.
| Company Name | Ticker | Shares Held (as of 9/30/25) | Market Value (as of 9/30/25) | Portfolio % | Q3 2025 Change (vs. Q2 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple Inc. | AAPL | 34,829,107 | $8,868,535,515 | 60.42% | Reduced |
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | BRK.B | 5,191,300 | $2,609,870,000 (est.) | 17.78% | Increased |
| PDD Holdings Inc. | PDD | 8,574,194 | $1,133,250,000 (est.) | 7.72% | Reduced |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp. | OXY | 13,556,100 | $640,530,000 (est.) | 4.36% | Unchanged |
| Alibaba Group Holding | BABA | 2,777,330 | $496,390,000 (est.) | 3.38% | Reduced (>25%) |
| Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | GOOG | 1,810,500 | $440,947,275 | 3.00% | Reduced |
| Microsoft Corp. | MSFT | 279,200 | $144,611,640 | 0.99% | Unchanged |
| NVIDIA Corp. | NVDA | 597,800 | $111,537,524 | 0.76% | Reduced (>25%) |
| The Walt Disney Co. | DIS | 723,000 | $82,780,000 (est.) | 0.56% | Unchanged |
| ASML Holding NV | ASML | 80,000 | $77,450,000 (est.) | 0.53% | New Position |
| Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. | TSM | 259,984 | $72,610,000 (est.) | 0.49% | Unchanged |
| Total Portfolio Value | $14,678,516,884 | 100.00% |
Analysis of Q3 2025 Portfolio Adjustments#
The portfolio changes in the third quarter were not random. They tell a coherent story of a disciplined value investor actively managing risk, valuation, and conviction levels.
The New Position: ASML Holding (ASML)#
H&H International initiated a new position of 80,000 shares in ASML, valued at approximately $77.45 million, or 0.53% of the portfolio. This move is interpreted as a strategic reflection of Duan's "focus on core semiconductor equipment globally". ASML is, in fact, the "world's sole supplier of EUV lithography machines".
This purchase is a profoundly "Buffett-style" investment, targeting the ultimate "moat." Duan Yongping already holds Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the world's dominant foundry. TSM's dominance, in turn, is entirely contingent on its access to ASML's exclusive EUV machines. By purchasing ASML, Duan is moving upstream to an even stronger, more absolute monopoly. He is not just buying a "picks and shovels" company; he is buying the exclusive patent-holder for the only pickaxe that can dig for all high-end "AI gold." The 0.53% position is a small "starter" stake, but it secures a foundational, non-negotiable piece of the entire global technology stack.
The Major Increase: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)#
H&H significantly increased its stake in Berkshire Hathaway, from approximately 3.38 million shares at the end of Q2 2025 to 5.19 million shares by the end of Q3 2025. This represents a ~53.5% increase in the number of shares held and elevates BRK.B from 14.24% of the portfolio to 17.78%.
This trade's logic can be clearly pieced together. In May 2025, Warren Buffett announced he would step down as CEO at the end of the year. In the subsequent three months, Berkshire's stock experienced a rare period of underperformance, falling as much as 16% as the market priced in "succession risk". For a true Buffett disciple like Duan, this does not represent risk; it represents opportunity. He has previously stated, after discussions with Buffett, that holding Berkshire is "definitely better than buying any random mutual fund".
Therefore, his significant Q3 purchase was a classic execution of Buffett's own maxim to "be greedy when others are fearful." He was "starting to position himself" by buying a fortress-like asset from a short-sighted market, betting on the durable, institutionalized system of rational capital allocation, not just on the man who built it.
The Significant Trims: Rebalancing Valuation and Risk#
During the quarter, H&H reduced five positions: Apple, PDD, Alibaba, Google, and NVIDIA. The reductions in Alibaba and NVIDIA were particularly "significant, exceeding 25%".
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NVIDIA (NVDA) - Taking Profits: The >25% cut in NVIDIA is a textbook value investor move. Duan is not an "AI-at-any-price" investor. While he clearly appreciates NVIDIA's "CUDA" moat, the "Uncertainty Rating" for the nascent AI market is considered "Very High". This trim is a rational, disciplined act of taking profits from a high-flying, cyclical stock with a stretched valuation. This reallocates capital to more certainly-undervalued assets like Berkshire Hathaway.
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Alibaba (BABA) - Acknowledging a Broken Thesis: The >25% cut in Alibaba signals a definitive loss of conviction. For years, BABA was a core "Buffett in China" play. However, its "wide moat" has been demonstrably damaged by "intense competition" from PDD and, more importantly, by "complex regulatory" and "geopolitical" risks. Charlie Munger, Buffett's late partner, had previously invested in Alibaba but sold, famously calling the investment a "mistake" due to the unpredictable and "highly competitive" nature of Chinese stocks. Duan's Q3 trim shows he is now converging with Munger's assessment: the company has moved into the "too hard" pile.
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PDD Holdings (PDD) - A Nuanced Separation: The trim in PDD is more complex. Duan is an angel investor in PDD and a personal mentor to its founder, Huang Zheng. However, his loyalty has its limits. He has publicly admitted, "I don't fully understand PDD's business model" and was noted as "starting to sell" in 2024. The business is currently in an aggressive, margin-burning "investment" phase, launching a RMB 100 billion merchant support program and sacrificing predictable profitability for global growth. This trim shows Duan the value investor separating from Duan the mentor, reducing exposure to a business that no longer fits the simple, predictable, high-margin "Buffett" mold.
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Apple (AAPL) - Prudent Rebalancing: The "slight decrease" in Apple should not be interpreted as a loss of faith. It is a matter of prudent risk management. When a single position grows to over 60% of a $14.68 billion portfolio , and the investor publicly states, "Apple is not inexpensive at present" , trimming is the only rational move. He is harvesting some profits to fund his new, more attractively-priced convictions (ASML, BRK.B).
Deep Dive: A Buffett-Style Analysis of H&H Holdings#
The following is a holding-by-holding analysis of the 11 companies in the H&H portfolio, conducted through the lens of Buffett-style value investing: focusing on the business model, economic moat, management and capital allocation, and financial health and valuation.
Part 1: The Core Convictions (78.2% of Portfolio)#
1. Apple Inc. (AAPL) (60.42%)#
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Business Model: Apple is fundamentally misunderstood as a "tech" company. It is a luxury consumer goods company with a powerful, high-margin services annuity stream. Its business is not just selling hardware (like the iPhone 17 and iPhone Air) , but a fully integrated and closed ecosystem of hardware, software (iOS), and services (App Store, iCloud, Apple Pay). These components are inseparable in the consumer's mind, reinforcing the value of the entire package.
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Economic Moat (Wide): Apple's moat is one of the widest in the world, built on extraordinarily high switching costs. The moat is not the iPhone; it is the iOS ecosystem. A user's identity, photos, messages, apps, and payments are deeply embedded in this ecosystem, making a switch to a competing platform (like Android) a painful, costly, and time-consuming process. This "walled garden" lock-in provides immense pricing power and fuels the growth of its high-margin Services division, which hit an all-time revenue record in Q4 2025.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Exemplary. While Steve Jobs was the product visionary, Tim Cook's era is defined by a strategic shift from pure reinvestment to becoming a "capital-return powerhouse". Apple's strategy is simple: generate a tidal wave of free cash flow ($98.8 billion in the trailing-12-month period) and return nearly all of it to shareholders. In Q2 2025, the company returned $29 billion to shareholders and announced a $100 billion increase to its share repurchase authorization. It has also raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years. This is precisely the kind of shareholder-friendly management that value investors prize.
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Financial Health: A fortress. For its fiscal year 2025, Apple reported record revenue of $416 billion. Its profitability is astounding for a company that sells hardware: Gross Margin of 46.91%, Net Profit Margin of 26.92%. Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) for 2025 is a staggering 70.14%.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is the key. Duan, Buffett, and market analysts all agree: Apple is not cheap. Its Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow (P/FCF) ratio is elevated at over 41 , and most Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models show it is overvalued, with a negative "margin of safety" at its current price. Duan's massive 60.42% holding and his Q3 2025 trim perfectly illustrate his thesis: The "margin of safety" for Apple comes not from its price, but from its certainty. He understands the durability of its ecosystem and cash flows better than almost any other company. The massive position is his ultimate conviction; the trim is his acknowledgment of its full valuation.
2. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B) (17.78%)#
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Business Model: Berkshire Hathaway is a unique conglomerate built on two powerful, synergistic engines:
- Operating Businesses: A collection of wholly-owned, wide-moat, capital-intensive businesses (like BNSF Railway and Berkshire Hathaway Energy) that are "cash gushers," generating steady, predictable, and enormous cash flow. 2. Insurance Operations: A massive insurance division (GEICO, Berkshire Hathaway Reinsurance) that, through disciplined underwriting, generates $176 billion in "insurance float". This float is essentially a vast, interest-free (or better-than-free) loan from policyholders, which Buffett and his team then invest for Berkshire's benefit.
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Economic Moat (Wide): The structure is the moat. Berkshire operates with a decentralized "autonomous" model for its subsidiaries, freeing them from bureaucracy. The permanent, massive, low-cost capital from its float is a competitive advantage no rival can replicate. Its fortress balance sheet, which held $328 billion in cash as of Q1 2025 , allows it to act as a "lender of last resort" during financial crises, acquiring prime assets at bargain prices when others are forced to sell.
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Management & Capital Allocation: This was the central theme of 2025. Warren Buffett (94) is set to step down as CEO at the end of the year, with Greg Abel (62) taking the reins. Ajit Jain (73) will continue to run the all-important insurance operations. The market sold off on this news, fearing the end of an era. Duan's massive Q3 increase in his BRK.B stake is a clear signal that he believes the culture of rational capital allocation is now institutionalized and will persist under Abel.
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Financial Health: A compounding machine. Book value per share, the best proxy for intrinsic value, has compounded at an 18.3% annualized rate from 1965 to 2024. Operating earnings (which reflect the "real" earnings of the businesses) were a robust $11.2 billion in Q1 2025.
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Valuation & Thesis: Duan's 17.78% holding is both a financial and an ideological one. He is placing his capital with the masters of capital allocation. His Q3 2025 purchase confirms his belief that Berkshire Hathaway, following the retirement announcement, was undervalued by a market that was miscalculating succession risk. He is betting on the system, not just the man.
Part 2: The E-Commerce & Energy Bets (15.5% of Portfolio)#
3. PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) (7.72%)#
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Business Model: PDD operates the "social e-commerce" platform Pinduoduo in China, which uses a team-buying model and social media sharing to drive network effects and customer acquisition. It has also launched an aggressive, fast-growing international service, Temu, which replicates its low-cost, direct-from-merchant model globally.
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Economic Moat (Narrow/Contested): PDD's moat is not built on brand or quality, but on its network effects and a ruthlessly efficient, low-cost operational structure. However, this moat is under constant, severe attack. The company faces "intense competition" and is now engaged in a costly, margin-burning war to defend its ecosystem, including launching a RMB 100 billion merchant support program.
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Management & Capital Allocation: This holding has historically been a bet on PDD's founder, Huang Zheng, who is a protégé of Duan's. The company's current strategy is a clear "growth over profit" model, with massive strategic investments in Temu's global expansion and logistics. This is an Amazon 1999-era strategy, not a Buffett 2025-era strategy.
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Financial Health: The strategy is taking a clear toll on short-term financials. While revenue grew 7% in Q2 2025, this was a "moderation". More concerningly, Operating Profit declined by 21% year-over-year , and net cash from operating activities dropped significantly. The company is funding this war from its massive $54.0 billion cash pile.
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Valuation & Thesis: At a P/E ratio of approximately 14.20 , the stock looks cheap. But as Duan himself has said, "Cheap things can get even cheaper". This appears to be Duan's most conflicted holding. He is an angel investor and mentor , but he is also a value investor who has publicly stated, "I don't fully understand PDD's business model" and was "starting to sell" as early as 2024. The Q3 2025 trim is the logical action of a value investor who sees the "margin of safety"-the certainty of future cash flows-has evaporated in a costly price war.
4. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) (4.36%)#
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Business Model: OXY operates a dual-pronged energy business.
- Upstream Oil & Gas: It is a leading, low-cost oil and gas producer with a "dominant position in the Permian Basin". 2. Carbon Management: It is a pioneer in carbon management, leveraging 50+ years of technical expertise in CO2 Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to build a new, synergistic business in Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) through its subsidiary, 1PointFive.
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Economic Moat (Narrow): The moat is twofold: its low-cost, high-quality Permian assets and its deep, technical expertise in CO2 management. This expertise, built over decades, provides a "natural advantage" and a significant head start in the emerging, high-growth carbon capture industry.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Excellent. Following the controversial Anadarko acquisition, CEO Vicki Hollub's strategy has been a model of capital discipline, with a singular focus on debt reduction and resilient free cash flow generation. The company repaid $2.3 billion in debt in Q1 2025 alone and generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow in Q3 2025.
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Financial Health: Steadily improving and resilient. Operating cash flow remains strong ($2.8 billion in Q3 2025) , and the balance sheet is being actively repaired.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is a clear Buffett-influenced "heads I win, tails I win" investment. The stock appears undervalued, with DCF models suggesting a margin of safety of approximately 26%. Heads (Short-term): It is an efficient, low-cost oil producer gushing free cash flow. Tails (Long-term): It is a "net-zero oil" company, using its unique EOR/CO2 moat to become a leader in the new climate economy. Duan, like Buffett, sees durable value in both scenarios.
5. Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) (3.38%)#
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Business Model: BABA is a sprawling Chinese tech conglomerate. Its "wide moat" was built on its core China e-commerce platforms, Taobao and Tmall. However, this is now a "slowdown" story. The company's future growth drivers are intended to be its Cloud Intelligence Group and AI initiatives.
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Economic Moat (Eroding): BABA is a case study in moat erosion. Its e-commerce dominance, once seemingly unassailable, is under "intense competition" from PDD, JD.com, and others. More critically, its operational and regulatory moat has been compromised by "regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty". The Chinese government's crackdowns and persistent U.S.-China data tensions have made its operating environment fundamentally unpredictable.
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Management & Capital Allocation: This is the primary risk. Management's core challenge is not just competition, but navigating a "complex regulatory environment". Charlie Munger's famous investment in 2021 was quickly reversed, with Munger calling it a "mistake" and citing the "highly competitive" and politically risky nature of the investment.
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Financial Health: The stock appears cheap, but it carries the classic hallmarks of a "value trap". It trades at a low P/E ratio of ~16 , and analysts project modest 7-11% growth. However, revenue growth (TTM) has become anemic.
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Valuation & Thesis: Duan's "significant" >25% reduction in his stake during Q3 says everything. He is voting with his feet. The stock may be "cheap" on a P/E basis, but the "margin of safety"-which Duan defines as understanding the business and its future cash flows -has collapsed. The certainty of those future cash flows is gone, lost in a fog of regulatory and competitive risks.
Part 3: The "Big Tech" Foundation (4.75% of Portfolio)#
6. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) (3.00%)#
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Business Model: Alphabet is a "wide moat" digital advertising duopoly. It dominates human information retrieval (Google Search) and online video (YouTube). It is also a top-three oligopoly player in the high-growth cloud computing market (Google Cloud).
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Economic Moat (Wide): The company possesses multiple, deep moats. Search: A self-reinforcing network effect of user data, queries, and ad-serving algorithms. YouTube: An unassailable network effect of creators and viewers. Android: A high-switching-cost mobile ecosystem. Fears that AI would cannibalize Search have proven unfounded; new features like AI Overviews are driving query growth. Google Cloud is a powerful growth engine, accelerating to 34% Y/Y growth in Q3 2_025 and reporting a $155 billion backlog.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Rated "Exemplary" by Morningstar. Management has successfully integrated its AI (Gemini) investments to strengthen its core moats, not disrupt them.
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Financial Health: Superb. Alphabet reported its first-ever $100 billion quarter in Q3 2025, with revenue hitting $102.3 billion (+16% Y/Y). Profitability is high and expanding, with a net profit margin of 32.23% and a strong balance sheet with low long-term debt.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is a core "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) holding. Duan's Q3 trim was likely minor rebalancing. Notably, Berkshire Hathaway initiated a new $4 billion position in GOOG in Q3 2025. This is a significant point of convergence: both Duan Yongping and Buffett's investment team (Combs, Weschler, and/or Abel) now see Alphabet's moats as durable, essential, and attractively priced.
7. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) (0.99%)#
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Business Model: Microsoft is the ultimate enterprise software "fortress." Its business is built on two pillars: 1) Its legacy, high-switching-cost, integrated software (Windows, Office 365) that runs the global enterprise. 2) Its high-growth Azure cloud platform, a key player in the cloud oligopoly.
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Economic Moat (Wide): The moat is switching costs. Businesses do not just use Microsoft products; they run on them. The "MSFT stack" is deeply and inextricably embedded in global IT infrastructure. The company's AI strategy (Azure AI, Co-pilots) is designed to integrate AI into this existing stack, increasing the switching costs and expanding the moat further.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Flawless. The company's Q1 2026 results (ending Sep 30, 2025) were a testament to management's execution. Azure growth was 39%, and more importantly, commercial bookings grew a "staggering" 111% year-over-year, proving the AI-integration strategy is a massive success.
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Financial Health: Pristine. Q1 2026 revenue was $77.7 billion (+17% Y/Y) with an incredible 48.9% operating margin.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is a "buy and hold" core position. It's a small (0.99%) and "unchanged" holding, indicating Duan is happy to let this world-class compounder do its work. It provides a stable, enterprise-focused counterweight to his consumer-facing (AAPL) and ad-facing (GOOG) tech holdings.
Part 4: The Thematic Satellites (2.34% of Portfolio)#
8. NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) (0.76%)#
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Business Model: NVIDIA is the undisputed king of AI hardware. It designs high-performance Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) that have become the "backbone of the AI infrastructure buildout".
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Economic Moat (Wide): The moat is not the chip; it's the CUDA software platform. CUDA is the proprietary programming model that allows developers to access the parallel processing power of the GPUs. Over nearly two decades, NVIDIA has cultivated a massive ecosystem of millions of developers trained on CUDA, and the vast library of foundational AI code is written for it. This creates a switching cost moat so high it is nearly unbreachable.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Visionary. Founder-CEO Jensen Huang's strategy of pushing CUDA into universities and research labs decades ago created this moat long before the AI boom.
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Financial Health: Explosive. In Q2 2025, Data Center revenue alone soared 56% to $41.1 billion. The company's financial health is rated as "excellent".
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Valuation & Thesis: This is a classic "great company at a terrible price" dilemma. Duan clearly recognizes the "CUDA moat". However, the "Uncertainty Rating" for the "nascent" AI market is "Very High". Duan's "significant" >25% cut in Q3 shows that he is a value investor first. He is unwilling to hold a full position in a highly cyclical, high-uncertainty market at a nosebleed valuation. He is trimming to lock in profits, demonstrating that no company is a "buy at any price" for him.
9. The Walt Disney Co. (DIS) (0.56%)#
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Business Model: Disney is a diversified media and entertainment conglomerate. Its business is a "flywheel" designed to monetize its world-class Intellectual Property (IP) across three segments: Studio (movies), Media (streaming, TV), and Parks & Experiences.
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Economic Moat (Wide): The moat is the IP. Disney owns a century of multi-generational, invaluable, and durable IP (Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Disney Animation). This IP is timeless. This moat is what allows Disney to operate 7 of the 10 most-visited theme parks on the planet and generate $5.5 billion at the 2024 global box office.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Under CEO Bob Iger, the company is refocusing on its core IP and Studio pipeline after several years of massive streaming losses and strategic missteps.
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Financial Health: Recovering. The stock has been a poor performer, down 18% over the past five years. The company is now in a "turnaround" phase, focused on cost-cutting and driving its streaming (DTC) segment to profitability.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is a "fallen angel" investment. The market, in recent years, has (wrongly, in Duan's view) valued Disney as a struggling 21st-century media company. Duan's "unchanged" Q3 position shows he is a patient investor. He is betting that the market is ignoring the eternal value of its 20th-century IP library, which remains one of the greatest moats in business.
10. ASML Holding NV (ASML) (0.53%)#
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Business Model: ASML is a true monopoly. It is the sole supplier of the Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines that are required to manufacture all advanced semiconductor chips (below the 7nm node).
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Economic Moat (Wide): The moat is absolute. Its customers (TSMC, Samsung, Intel) must buy from ASML and cannot buy from anyone else. The R&D, physics, and complex global supply chain required to create these machines are so complex that they are nearly impossible to replicate. This is arguably the strongest and most durable moat in the entire technology industry.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Management is successfully navigating a complex geopolitical environment (e.g., a warning of a 2026 decline in China sales) while maintaining strong long-term revenue goals.
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Financial Health: Resilient and forward-looking. While Q3 2025 showed flat sales, its forward-looking bookings were "stellar" at €5.4 billion, proving the AI-driven capital expenditure cycle remains intact.
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Valuation & Thesis: This new Q3 position is the most intellectually "Buffett" move of the quarter. It is a bet on an unavoidable tollbooth for the entire global economy. Any company, from Apple to NVIDIA, that wants to be in the business of AI, high-performance computing, or advanced smartphones must pay this toll. The 0.53% position is a starter stake that completes his "semiconductor value chain" thesis: ASML (the tool) -> TSM (the factory) -> AAPL/NVDA (the designers).
11. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) (0.49%)#
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Business Model: TSM is the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry. It does not design chips; it manufactures them for "fabless" companies like Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD, who are its core customers.
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Economic Moat (Wide): TSM has a "wide moat" based on its foundry leadership and technological execution. It holds an estimated 90% market share for high-end (e.g., 3nm) chip manufacturing. Its customers, who are leaders in their own fields, are entirely reliant on TSM's manufacturing prowess. This creates high switching costs and deep network effects.
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Management & Capital Allocation: Excellent. Led by CEO C.C. Wei , management is successfully riding the AI wave, with AI-related chips accounting for a soaring 57% of Q3 2025 revenue.
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Financial Health: Superb. The company operates with a stunning 44% net profit margin and is projected to grow revenue at 14-20% annually for the next several years.
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Valuation & Thesis: This is the "shovel" to ASML's "pickaxe." Duan holds the company that buys the ASML machines to build the chips. It's a bet on the manufacturing bottleneck. The position is small (0.49%) and was "unchanged" in Q3 , indicating it is a stable, long-term thematic holding. The primary risk (geopolitics) is high, but the moat is undeniable.
Conclusion: A Portfolio of Conviction and Patience#
Duan Yongping's Q3 2025 portfolio is a living embodiment of his core philosophy: "Buying stocks is buying companies". It is not a diversified "basket of stocks" but an intensely curated collection of ownership stakes in 11 businesses he understands deeply-from their indestructible moats (Apple, ASML) to their rational management (Berkshire Hathaway).
The changes in this filing are not random. They tell a coherent story of a rational, disciplined investor:
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Buying Certainty: He bought the temporary, sentiment-driven dip in Berkshire Hathaway and initiated a position in the absolute monopoly of ASML , actively rotating capital into certainty.
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Selling Uncertainty: He trimmed positions where valuation (NVIDIA), competitive risk (PDD), or geopolitical risk (Alibaba) had eroded his margin of safety.
This portfolio is a testament to patience, discipline, and high-conviction. It perfectly reflects Duan's own wisdom: "We are who we are because of the things we didn't do". In Q3 2025, he didn't chase AI hype at any price, he didn't panic over Warren Buffett's retirement, and he didn't hold on to a broken thesis in Chinese tech just because it was cheap. He acted as a rational business owner, and this report has detailed the "why" behind every move.
Works cited#
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