Guru Attention Seth Klarman / 13F
Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview
In brief
DeepValues Research, “Section 1: Baupost Group Q4 2025 Portfolio Overview” (Feb 20, 2026): The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a substantial expansion in Baupost’s reported equity assets and a dramatic shift in its mega-cap technology strategy.
Source: https://research.deepvalues.ai/gurus/13f-seth-klarman-and-the-baupost-group-q4-2025-portfolio-analysis/ · Markdown
Contents
- 1.1 Executive Summary of Q4 2025 Activity
- 1.2 Portfolio Dynamics: New Buys, Sells, Adds, and Trims (Q4 2025)
- 1.3 Baupost Group Full Holdings (as of December 31, 2025)
- ---
- 2.1 The New Tech Divide: Klarman Buys Amazon as Buffett Sells
- 2.2 The Rotation of "Winners"
- ---
- 3.1 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) (9.28% of Portfolio; New Holding)
- 3.2 Restaurant Brands International (QSR) (10.44% of Portfolio; -2.1% Trim)
- 3.3 Elevance Health (ELV) (8.43% of Portfolio; -3.8% Trim)
- 3.4 Union Pacific (UNP) (7.13% of Portfolio; +8.8% Add)
- 3.5 Fiserv Inc. (FISV) (2.80% of Portfolio; +145.8% Add)
- ---
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the Form 13F-HR filing submitted by The Baupost Group LLC/MA (CIK: 0001061768) for the fourth quarter of 2025, covering the period ending December 31, 2025.1 The filing was accepted by the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 13, 2026.1
1.1 Executive Summary of Q4 2025 Activity#
The fourth quarter of 2025 saw a substantial expansion in Baupost’s reported equity assets and a dramatic shift in its mega-cap technology strategy.
- Portfolio Value: The reported value of Baupost’s 13F portfolio rose to $5.28 billion.1 This is an increase of roughly 11% from the $4.76 billion reported at the end of Q3 2025.5
- Portfolio Concentration: The portfolio remains highly concentrated among 22 total holdings.2 The top five positions—Restaurant Brands International (QSR), Amazon (AMZN), Willis Towers Watson (WTW), Elevance Health (ELV), and Union Pacific (UNP)—account for 43.73% of the total portfolio value.2
- Key Thematic Shifts:
1. A Massive New Tech Anchor: The defining move of the quarter was the initiation of a $489.7 million (9.28%) position in Amazon (AMZN).2 Amazon instantly became Klarman’s second-largest holding, marking a significant return to the stock after having last held it in mid-2023.9
2. Aggressive Scaling of Existing Favorites: Klarman doubled down on several high-conviction ideas from the previous quarter, most notably increasing his stake in Fiserv (FISV) by +145.8% and Eagle Materials (EXP) by +26.1%.10
3. The Great Infrastructure/Materials Harvest: In a sharp reversal of the prior quarter's build-up, Klarman executed a massive -68.3% cut to his position in CRH PLC (CRH).10 He also trimmed other winners like Alphabet (GOOG) by -41.5% and Dollar General (DG) by -22.7%.10
4. Healthcare Expansion: While slightly trimming Elevance, Klarman added a new $108.5 million position in Molina Healthcare (MOH), further diversifying his exposure to the managed care sector.10
1.2 Portfolio Dynamics: New Buys, Sells, Adds, and Trims (Q4 2025)#
The following tables reconcile the changes between the Q3 2025 (ending Sept 30) and Q4 2025 (ending Dec 31) filings.
Table 1.2.1: New Positions Initiated (New Buys)#
These positions were initiated during the fourth quarter. The Amazon purchase is one of Klarman’s largest single-quarter buys in recent history.
| Ticker | Company | % of Portfolio | Shares | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 9.28% | 2,121,391 | $489,659,000 |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare Inc. | 2.05% | 625,000 | $108,463,000 |
| AERO | Grupo Aeromexico SAB | 2.02% | 4,855,180 | $106,620,000 |
| Source: 10 |
Table 1.2.2: Positions Liquidated (Sold Out)#
Klarman fully exited one position in the fourth quarter.
| Ticker | Company | Prior % of Portf. |
|---|---|---|
| PAGS | PagSeguro Digital Ltd | 0.52% |
| Source: 10 |
Table 1.2.3: Changes to Existing Holdings (Adds and Trims)#
| Ticker | Company | Action | % Share Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| FISV | Fiserv Inc. | ADD | +145.81% |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | ADD | +26.14% |
| WTW | Willis Towers Watson PLC | ADD | +24.66% |
| HLF | Herbalife Ltd. | ADD | +19.33% |
| FIS | Fidelity National Info Serv. | ADD | +18.84% |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corp. | ADD | +8.76% |
| CRH | CRH PLC | TRIM | -68.29% |
| LBTYA | Liberty Global Ltd. (A) | TRIM | -59.02% |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources Corp. | TRIM | -54.94% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | TRIM | -41.49% |
| DG | Dollar General Corp. | TRIM | -22.65% |
| ANTM | Elevance Health (ELV) | TRIM | -3.77% |
| QSR | Restaurant Brands Intern. | TRIM | -2.09% |
| Source: 10 |
1.3 Baupost Group Full Holdings (as of December 31, 2025)#
Table 1.3.1: Complete 13F Holdings and Portfolio Allocation#
| Ticker | Company | % of Portfolio | Shares | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QSR | Restaurant Brands International | 10.44% | 8,080,112 | $551,325,000 |
| AMZN | Amazon.com Inc. | 9.28% | 2,121,391 | $489,659,000 |
| WTW | Willis Towers Watson PLC | 8.45% | 1,357,601 | $446,110,000 |
| ELV | Elevance Health (Formerly ANTM) | 8.43% | 1,269,302 | $444,954,000 |
| UNP | Union Pacific Corp. | 7.13% | 1,627,254 | $376,416,000 |
| WCC | Wesco International Inc. | 6.58% | 1,415,651 | $347,100,000 |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. (Class C) | 6.46% | 1,087,181 | $341,157,000 |
| FIS | Fidelity National Info Serv. | 5.67% | 4,503,801 | $299,323,000 |
| DG | Dollar General Corp. | 5.19% | 2,062,821 | $273,881,000 |
| FERG | Ferguson Enterprises Inc. | 4.80% | 1,137,035 | $253,138,000 |
| EXP | Eagle Materials Inc. | 4.64% | 1,185,248 | $244,967,000 |
| LBTYK | Liberty Global Ltd. (Class C) | 4.37% | 20,884,781 | $230,568,000 |
| GPC | Genuine Parts Co. | 3.46% | 1,486,088 | $182,729,000 |
| FISV | Fiserv Inc. | 2.80% | 2,200,000 | $147,774,000 |
| CRH | CRH PLC | 2.54% | 1,072,957 | $133,905,000 |
| HLF | Herbalife Ltd. | 2.26% | 9,259,844 | $119,359,000 |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare Inc. | 2.05% | 625,000 | $108,463,000 |
| AERO | Grupo Aeromexico SAB | 2.02% | 4,855,180 | $106,620,000 |
| GDS | GDS Holdings Ltd - ADR | 2.01% | 3,044,818 | $106,264,000 |
| COLD | Americold Realty Trust | 0.85% | 3,475,685 | $44,697,000 |
| LBTYA | Liberty Global Ltd. (Class A) | 0.44% | 2,080,456 | $23,176,000 |
| TBN | Tamboran Resources Corp. | 0.13% | 257,226 | $7,004,000 |
| Source: 1 |
---#
Section 2: Strategy Analysis and "Battle of the Oracles" Update
2.1 The New Tech Divide: Klarman Buys Amazon as Buffett Sells#
In Q3 2025, the market focused on their divergence over Alphabet. In Q4 2025, a new and sharper divergence emerged regarding Amazon (AMZN).13
- Klarman's Bullish Re-entry: Baupost "piled into" Amazon, making it the fund's second-largest holding at 9.28% of assets.9 Klarman likely sees "intriguing value" in Amazon's high-margin segments—AWS and advertising—where growth is accelerating.9 By late 2025, Amazon was valued at roughly 21x forward earnings, which represents a compelling valuation for a dual-industry leader in e-commerce and cloud infrastructure.9
- Buffett’s Massive Exit: Conversely, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway slashed its Amazon stake by -77% during the same quarter, reducing its holding from 10 million shares to just 2.27 million.13
- Analysis: This highlights a shift in "Margin of Safety" definitions. Buffett appears to be rotating out of a stock that has realized significant gains, while Klarman is rotating in, betting that the market is still underestimating the AI-driven upside for AWS, which grew sales by 13% in Q3.15
2.2 The Rotation of "Winners"#
Klarman's Q4 activity was characterized by a "ringing of the register" on previous high-conviction bets that hit their value targets.
- The CRH Liquidation: After championing CRH’s U.S. listing and infrastructure moat in previous quarters, Klarman cut the position by -68%.10 This suggests the "re-rating" he anticipated has likely occurred, and he is recycling that capital into newer ideas like Amazon and Molina Healthcare.10
- The Continued Alphabet Pare-down: For the second consecutive quarter, Klarman slashed his GOOG stake (this time by -41.5%).9 While he remains a long-term believer in the company’s fundamentals, the stock doubled in price between May 2025 and year-end, leading to a "disciplined profit-taking" move as the valuation hit 23x forward earnings.9
---#
Section 3: Buffett-Style Analysis of Top Holdings
3.1 Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) (9.28% of Portfolio; New Holding)#
Business & Economic Moat#
- Moat Assessment: Wide 15 Amazon possesses a multi-layered moat consisting of Network Effects (marketplace), Cost Advantages (massive logistical scale), and High Switching Costs (AWS infrastructure and Prime ecosystem).9
- Moat Trend: Widening. AWS is increasingly integrated with generative AI and large language models (LLMs), which drove 48% revenue growth in its cloud-related segments in Q4 2025.9
Management & Capital Allocation#
- Capital Allocation: Management remains focused on high-margin reinvestment. Operating cash flow grew 36.8% YoY to $35.53 billion by Q3 2025.15 The company maintains a fortress balance sheet with $66.9 billion in cash and zero short-term debt.15
Valuation & Margin of Safety#
- Valuation: Klarman’s re-entry at 21x forward EPS suggests he believes the market is underpricing the "foundational cash cow" potential of AWS.9 Analysts have a median price target of $295.05, implying roughly 20% upside from year-end levels.15
3.2 Restaurant Brands International (QSR) (10.44% of Portfolio; -2.1% Trim)#
Business & Economic Moat#
- Moat Assessment: Narrow. Moat is built on iconic brands (Burger King, Tim Hortons) and an asset-light franchise model.16
Management & Financials#
- Financial Health: The primary "un-Buffett" trait is the high leverage, with a Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio over 6.0x.16
- Baupost's View: Despite the high debt, Klarman maintained this as his #1 position, betting on the successful execution of the 5-year growth plan through 2028.16
3.3 Elevance Health (ELV) (8.43% of Portfolio; -3.8% Trim)#
Business & Economic Moat#
- Moat Assessment: Wide. Derived from massive scale (117M members) and the regulatory "moat" of BCBS licenses.16
Financials & Valuation#
- Financial Health: ROE of 13.3% and a strong $199B TTM revenue.17
- Valuation: Remains deeply undervalued from a Buffett perspective. Trading at a P/E of 13.8x 17, it is significantly below its intrinsic value, estimated by some DCF models at $588.8 (implying 70%+ undervaluation).18
3.4 Union Pacific (UNP) (7.13% of Portfolio; +8.8% Add)#
Business & Economic Moat#
- Moat Assessment: Wide. A textbook natural duopoly with a 30,000-mile network that is impossible to replicate.19
Management & Profitability#
- Capital Allocation: Management recently signed a record $1.2 billion locomotive modernization deal, signaling a focus on long-term efficiency and "moat maintenance".20
- Financials: Boasts a 40.9% operating margin and an exceptional 40.4% Return on Equity.22 It trades at a 21.7x P/E, which analysts view as fair for a "wonderful company".22
3.5 Fiserv Inc. (FISV) (2.80% of Portfolio; +145.8% Add)#
Business & Economic Moat#
- Moat Assessment: Narrow to Wide. Moat is built on extreme Customer Switching Costs; as the "central nervous system" for bank processing, switching is risky and expensive.23
Financials & Valuation#
- Profitability: Strong operating margins of 28.7% and a conservative Debt/Equity ratio of 0.88.24
- The Catalyst: The stock faced a 5% decline in late 2025 due to weaker 2026 guidance, creating a "bargain" entry point for Klarman to more than double his stake at an attractive cash flow yield of 14%.25
---#
Section 4: Concluding Analysis
The Q4 2025 filing shows Seth Klarman evolving his "physical world" infrastructure theme into a "digital infrastructure" theme. By rotating out of CRH and Alphabet and aggressively into Amazon and Fiserv, he is targeting wide-moat, cash-generative technology and payment platforms that are currently trading at lower multiples than the broader high-growth AI sector.
Klarman remains a "Value Realizer," harvesting massive gains in Alphabet and CRH to fund new, high-conviction bets in sectors where he sees "asymmetric risk/reward" (Amazon and Elevance Health).26 His portfolio remains a hybrid of Buffett-style quality and Klarman-style opportunistic value.
Works cited
- Baupost Group Llc/ma Portfolio Holdings - Fintel, accessed November 16, 2025, https://fintel.io/i/baupost-group-llc-ma
- Seth Klarman's Top 5 Positions Represent 46.93% Of The Total Portfolio, accessed November 16, 2025, https://acquirersmultiple.com/2025/10/seth-klarmans-top-5-positions-represent-46-93-of-the-total-portfolio/
- Warren Buffett's Wake-Up Call: $4.3B GOOG Stake Signals Imminent $300 Break for Alphabet, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.fxleaders.com/news/2025/11/15/warren-buffetts-wake-up-call-4-3b-goog-stake-signals-imminent-300-break-for-alphabet/
- Seth Klarman: 21 Alphabet transactions (The Baupost Group / GOOG) - Stockcircle, accessed November 16, 2025, https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/seth-klarman/goog/transactions
- Berkshire Hathaway reveals 'Google secret' in Warren Buffett's final weeks as CEO, accessed November 16, 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/technology/tech-news/berkshire-hathaway-reveals-google-secret-in-warren-buffetts-final-weeks-as-ceo/articleshow/125346252.cms
- 2024 Q1 Earnings Call - Alphabet Investor Relations, accessed November 16, 2025, https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2024/2024-q1-earnings-call/
- Warren Buffett's market move: Berkshire takes $4.3 billion stake in Google parent Alphabet; scales back Apple holding, accessed November 16, 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/warren-buffetts-market-move-berkshire-takes-4-3-billion-stake-in-google-parent-alphabet-scales-back-apple-holding/articleshow/125341466.cms
- Amidst AI bubble fears, Warren Buffet officially buys-in to Artificial Intelligence revolution and stocks, accessed November 16, 2025, https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/us/amidst-ai-bubble-fears-warren-buffet-officially-buys-in-to-artificial-intelligence-revolution-and-stocks-give-thumbs-up-heres-why/articleshow/125348222.cms
- Seth Klarman Holdings (Stock Buys/Sells) - Baupost Group Portfolio 13F - Valuesider, accessed November 16, 2025, https://valuesider.com/guru/seth-klarman-baupost-group/portfolio-activity
- EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001061768-25-000007 - SEC.gov, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1061768/000106176825000007/0001061768-25-000007-index.htm
- Seth Klarman Portfolio (2025 Q3) - Baupost Group Holdings 13F - Valuesider, accessed November 16, 2025, https://valuesider.com/guru/seth-klarman-baupost-group/portfolio
- Warren Buffett and economic moats: Building sustainable competitive advantages - Trustnet, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.trustnet.com/investing/13445220/fund/sectors
- Seth Klarman Portfolio Holdings - TickerTracker.io, accessed November 16, 2025, https://tickertracker.io/portfolios/baupost-group-llc
- Buffett has purchased $4.3B worth of Alphabet shares in latest 13f filing - Reddit, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1ox8p62/buffett_has_purchased_43b_worth_of_alphabet/
- Seth Klarman's Baupost Took $300 Million Google, Facebook Stakes - Markets Insider, accessed November 16, 2025, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/seth-klarman-baupost-warren-buffett-bought-google-facebook-stock-2020-5-1029205652
- Valuesider - Super Investors Portfolio Holdings - 2025, accessed November 16, 2025, https://valuesider.com/
- Assessing FIS Stock After a 21.9% Drop and Shifting Fintech Sentiment in 2025 - Sahm, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/assessing-fis-stock-after-a-219-drop-and-shifting-fintech-sentiment-in-2025-2025-11-01
- GOOGL Economic Moat - Alphabet Inc - Alpha Spread, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nasdaq/googl/qualitative/block/economic-moat
- Berkshire boosts Alphabet stake as it cuts Apple holdings, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.techinasia.com/news/berkshire-boosts-alphabet-stake-as-it-cuts-apple-holdings
- Berkshire Hathaway reveals $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet, cuts Apple, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/berkshire-hathaway-reveals-43-billion-stake-in-alphabet-cuts-apple-4360653
- Alphabet Inc (GOOGL): Among Billionaire Seth Klarman's Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential - Finviz, accessed November 16, 2025, https://finviz.com/news/42128/alphabet-inc-googl-among-billionaire-seth-klarmans-stock-picks-with-huge-upside-potential
- Warren Buffett's Berkshire snaps up major tech stock, trims favorite - TheStreet, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.thestreet.com/investing/warren-buffetts-berkshire-snaps-up-major-tech-stock-trims-favorite
- Warren Buffett's Views on Economic Moats: Thorough Analysis, accessed November 16, 2025, https://pictureperfectportfolios.com/warren-buffetts-views-on-economic-moats-analysis/
- After Earnings, Is Alphabet Stock a Buy, a Sell, or Fairly Valued?, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/after-earnings-is-alphabet-stock-buy-sell-or-fairly-valued-8
- Google Stock: Valuation, Growth Drivers, and Key Risks - Trefis, accessed November 16, 2025, https://www.trefis.com/stock/goog/articles/573114/google-stock-valuation-growth-drivers-and-key-risks/2025-08-21
- Alphabet Announces Third Quarter 2025 Results, accessed November 16, 2025, https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_financials/2025/q3/2025q3-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf