macro-valuation dashboard

Feb 19, 2026 2 min read

Here's a quick, current "macro-valuation dashboard" (U.S. market) - all values as of today (Oct 31, 2025, PT), with sources:

Buffett Indicator (TMC / GDP): ~217%-223% (CMV's quarterly model: 217% and "Strongly Overvalued"; GuruFocus daily: 223.1% and "Significantly Overvalued").
Shiller CAPE (CAPE10): ~40-41 (Multpl shows 40.74; long-run mean ~17.3, median ~16.1).
VIX (spot): ~17.0 (Cboe live page lists $17.01 intraday; FRED close yesterday 16.91).
10-Year U.S. Treasury yield: ~4.08% (latest daily from FRED).
High-Yield credit spread (ICE BofA HY OAS): ~2.8% (late-Oct prints).
10y-3m yield curve: ~+0.2% (slightly positive) after a long inversion.
S&P 500 forward P/E: 22.7× → forward earnings yield ≈ 4.41% (FactSet).
S&P 500 dividend yield: ~1.15% (late-Oct).
10-yr breakeven inflation (market-implied): ~2.29%.
AAII sentiment (this week): Bulls ~44%, Neutrals ~19%, Bears ~37% (optimism up w/w).

Valuation headwinds: A Buffett Indicator >200% and CAPE ≈40 sit in the top decile of history. That combo has historically preceded lower 5-10-yr real returns for broad indices, so margin-of-safety demands should be higher.
Risk pricing still easy: VIX ~17 and HY OAS ~2.8% say "complacent/benign" credit & vol regimes-fine until they aren't. Be careful paying peak multiples for cyclical or levered names.
Skinny equity risk premium: Forward E-yield (~4.41%) minus the 10-yr (~4.08%) ≈ 0.33%-thin compensation versus Treasuries at the index level. Stock-picking (quality cash flows, durable moats, non-consensus cash-return paths) matters more than beta.
Curve only barely positive: The 10y-3m spread has just turned slightly >0. A soft-landing is possible, but the slope is shallow-growth sensitivity remains. Keep underwriting with conservative cycle assumptions.
Sentiment not washed-out: AAII shows moderate optimism (bull-bear spread positive). This isn't the kind of fear that usually hands value investors broad bargains.

Practical playbook (brief):

Hunt in idiosyncratic value (special situations, capital return stories, under-earning quality) rather than paying up for broad market exposure.
Demand clear cash economics (owner's earnings, reinvestment runway, pricing power) and avoid stories dependent on multiple expansion.
Stay valuation-disciplined: underwrite with higher discount rates and lower terminal multiples, given the skinny ERP and rich starting CAPE.
Use credit & vol as risk dials: widening HY OAS or a jump in VIX can quickly change opportunity sets; have a watchlist and buy-levels ready.

If you want, I can keep a lightweight daily snapshot of these indicators for you (same sources) and flag when thresholds you care about are crossed.

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