Dan Bin’s Q3 2026 Portfolio Analysis…

In its Form 13F disclosure filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on October 22, 2026, for the period ending September 30, 2026, Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund revealed a significant strategic reallocation across its U.S.-listed equity portfolio. Total reported U.S. long equity assets under management contracted from $1.65 billion to $1.47 billion as fund manager Dan Bin operated as a net seller, generating net capital sales of -$114.7 million ($217.1 million in total purchases against $331.8 million in total sales). Demonstrating disciplined capital re-assignment, Oriental Harbor completely liquidated major legacy semiconductor positions in Marvell Technology (MRVL) and ARM Holdings (ARM), while aggressively trimming Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) by 64%. Simultaneously, the firm established a major new core holding in Apple Inc. (AAPL) valued at $91.4 million and expanded its highest-conviction artificial intelligence and mega-cap platform investments, including Alphabet Inc. (GOOG), NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). For long-term investors tracking China’s premier value manager, this quarterly shift highlights how Dan Bin is adjusting offshore technology exposures—liquidating semiconductor holdings whose market valuations demanded unachievable long-term cash flow growth while channeling capital into moat-protected, highly predictable ecosystem compounders.

1. The Investor: Philosophy, Fund, and Lifetime Work#

Background & Philosophy#

Dan Bin (但斌) is the Shenzhen-based founder of Oriental Harbor Investment (东方港湾), established in 2004. Recognized as one of China's pioneer disciples of Warren Buffett, Bin articulated his long-horizon value investing methodology in his seminal 2007 book, "The Rose of Time", which laid out the foundational, multi-decade investment case for Chinese spirit manufacturer Kweichow Moutai. Bin maintains an exceptionally public presence compared to traditional institutional asset managers, regularly sharing commentary with millions of followers across Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo.

Offshore Pivot to US Tech#

While historically celebrated for domestic consumer franchise investments in Mainland China, Oriental Harbor initiated a deliberate offshore expansion beginning in 2023. Bin pivoted aggressively into U.S.-listed artificial intelligence hardware providers and mega-cap software infrastructure platforms. Within this offshore mandate, chipmaker NVIDIA and mega-cap technology platforms have served as the fundamental core of the firm's equity strategy.

Filing Scope & Fund Identification#

The regulatory disclosures in this report originate from SEC Form 13F-HR (accession number 0002046333-26-000004, CIK 0002046333), filed by the Hong Kong-based entity Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund for the quarter ending September 30, 2026. Long-term investors must note the structural boundaries of Form 13F filings: the report covers only U.S.-listed long equity holdings. It completely omits Oriental Harbor's domestic Chinese A-share investments (including its long-standing Kweichow Moutai position), cash reserves, short positions, fixed-income securities, options contracts, and non-U.S. listings. Per DeepValues framework classification, Oriental Harbor operates a value-oriented management style.

2. The Portfolio at Quarter End: Size, Concentration, and Core Holdings#

Macro Portfolio Metrics#

Total Reported U.S. Long Equity Value: $1.47 billion as of September 30, 2026 (down from $1.65 billion reported at the end of Q2 2026).
Total Reported Positions: 13 common stock holdings (unchanged count from 13 positions in Q2 2026).
Portfolio Concentration: High structural concentration, with the top 10 holdings accounting for 98.5% of the reported U.S. portfolio value.

Portfolio Holdings Table#

The table below details all 13 reported U.S. long equity positions held by Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund at the conclusion of Q3 2026, ranked strictly by reported market value:

Rank	Ticker / Company Name	Market Value ($)	Portfolio Share (%)	Q3 Share Count Change (%)
1	GOOG (Alphabet Inc.)	$395,300,000	26.9%	+11%
2	NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.)	$281,500,000	19.2%	+14%
3	INTC (Intel Corp.)	$211,400,000	14.4%	-5%
4	MU (Micron Technology, Inc.)	$160,700,000	10.9%	+2%
5	SNDK (Sandisk Corp.)	$137,000,000	9.3%	+2%
6	AAPL (Apple Inc.)	$91,400,000	6.2%	New
7	TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.)	$62,800,000	4.3%	+0%
8	AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)	$56,000,000	3.8%	-64%
9	AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.)	$35,100,000	2.4%	+135%
10	SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies / SpaceX)	$15,900,000	1.1%	New
11	META (Meta Platforms, Inc.)	$11,900,000	0.8%	+6,694%
12	LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.)	$9,500,000	0.7%	-62%
13	AVGO (Broadcom Inc.)	$127,833	0.0%	-99%

3. What Changed: New, Added, Trimmed, and Sold-Out Positions#

Quarter Summary Statistics#

During the third quarter of 2026, Oriental Harbor executed strategic portfolio shifts across its positions: * Total Estimated Purchases: ~$217.1 million * Total Estimated Sales: ~$331.8 million * Net Quarterly Activity: Net Seller (-$114.7 million net capital output) * Estimated Portfolio Turnover: ~13.9% * Categorical Trade Breakdown: 2 new positions established, 7 existing positions expanded, 4 positions trimmed, and 2 positions completely liquidated.

Transaction Detail List#

Below is the audit of all 15 portfolio adjustments executed during Q3 2026, ordered strictly in descending order of estimated transaction dollar magnitude:

MRVL (Marvell Technology, Inc.) — Complete Liquidation
- Transaction Details: Liquidated 100% of position (valued at ~$130.8 million at the close of Q2 2026).
- (Inferred Motive: Complete profit-taking following massive stock appreciation beyond underlying fundamental intrinsic value).
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) — Trim
- Transaction Details: Trimmed 64% of total share count (realized sale value of ~$97.8 million); remaining position valued at $56.0 million (3.8% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Reallocating capital away from high-DCF-expectation semiconductor plays toward lower-risk mega-caps).
AAPL (Apple Inc.) — New Entry
- Transaction Details: Established new position valued at $91.4 million (6.2% portfolio weight).
- (Inferred Motive: Seeking consumer ecosystem durability and robust cash flow predictability amid broader hardware volatility).
ARM (ARM Holdings plc) — Complete Liquidation
- Transaction Details: Liquidated 100% of position (valued at ~$53.4 million at the close of Q2 2026).
- (Inferred Motive: Exiting high-multiple valuation positions to lock in capital).
GOOG (Alphabet Inc.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Added 11% to share count (estimated purchase cost of ~$37.7 million); total position size increased to $395.3 million (26.9% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Doubling down on primary high-conviction core position with strong balance sheet).
NVDA (NVIDIA Corp.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Added 14% to share count (estimated purchase cost of ~$34.0 million); total position size increased to $281.5 million (19.2% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Maintaining core exposure to category-dominant AI GPU infrastructure).
AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) — Trim
- Transaction Details: Trimmed 99% of share count (realized sale value of ~$23.0 million); residual stake valued at $127,833 (0.0% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Near-total liquidation of legacy position to reassign liquidity).
AMZN (Amazon.com Inc.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Increased share count by 135% (estimated purchase cost of ~$20.2 million); total position size expanded to $35.1 million (2.4% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Aggressive expansion of cloud/AI platform position from a smaller starting base).
SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / SpaceX) — New Entry
- Transaction Details: Established new position valued at $15.9 million (1.1% portfolio weight).
- (Inferred Motive: Tactical allocation into late-stage private space infrastructure via US vehicle).
LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) — Trim
- Transaction Details: Trimmed 62% of share count (realized sale value of ~$15.8 million); remaining stake valued at $9.5 million (0.7% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Reducing exposure to secondary optical/hardware suppliers).
META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Increased share count by 6,694% (estimated purchase cost of ~$11.7 million); total position expanded to $11.9 million (0.8% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Scaling up a minimal tracking position into a meaningful holding).
INTC (Intel Corp.) — Trim
- Transaction Details: Trimmed 5% of share count (realized sale value of ~$11.0 million); remaining position valued at $211.4 million (14.4% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Minor rebalancing of top-three position).
MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Added 2% to share count (estimated purchase cost of ~$3.5 million); total position size expanded to $160.7 million (10.9% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Incremental accumulation of memory market leader).
SNDK (Sandisk Corp.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Added 2% to share count (estimated purchase cost of ~$2.6 million); total position size expanded to $137.0 million (9.3% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Modest add to established storage holding).
TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.) — Addition
- Transaction Details: Added 0% (fractional share increase with estimated cost of ~$175,633); total position size held at $62.8 million (4.3% of portfolio).
- (Inferred Motive: Maintaining exact target weighting).

4. The Biggest Moves, Valued: Owner Earnings & DCF Analysis#

To evaluate the intrinsic valuation mechanics driving Oriental Harbor's major transactions, DeepValues Research executed its standard owner-earnings Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) and reverse DCF models across ten years of audited SEC filings (Form 10-K and 10-Q).

DeepValues Methodology Formula: $$\text{Owner Earnings} = \text{Operating Cash Flow} - \text{Maintenance Capex} - \text{Stock-Based Compensation}$$ Where Maintenance Capex is defined as the lesser of total Capital Expenditures and Depreciation & Amortization. Stock-based compensation is deducted as a real economic expense.

Model Parameters: Discount Rate = 10.0%; Growth years 1–5 = $g$; Years 6–10 fade to a perpetual terminal growth rate of 2.5%. Balance sheet net cash (cash & marketable securities minus total debt) is added to enterprise value to determine total equity intrinsic value.

Subsection A: Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) — Complete Exit#

Oriental Harbor fully liquidated its $130.8 million stake in Marvell Technology during Q3 2026.

10-Year Historical Financial Trajectory (MRVL)#

Figures in US$ Billions (Fiscal Years ended late January/early February)

Period	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Total Capex	D&A	Stock Comp	Owner Earnings (Maintenance Capex)
FY2020	$2.7	$1.6	$0.4	$0.1	$0.2	$0.2	$0.0
FY2021	$3.0	-$0.3	$0.8	$0.1	$0.2	$0.2	$0.5
FY2022	$4.5	-$0.4	$0.8	$0.2	$0.3	$0.5	$0.2
FY2023	$5.9	-$0.2	$1.3	$0.2	$0.3	$0.6	$0.5
FY2024	$5.5	-$0.9	$1.4	$0.3	$1.2	$0.6	$0.4
FY2025	$5.8	-$0.9	$1.7	$0.3	$1.2	$0.6	$0.8
FY2026	$8.2	$2.7	$1.8	$0.4	$1.2	$0.6	$0.8
TTM (2026-08-01)	$9.5	$2.6	$2.2	$0.5	N/A	$0.8	$0.9

Balance Sheet & Net Cash Calculation (MRVL)#

Cash and Marketable Securities: $3.9 Billion
Total Debt: $5.0 Billion
Net Cash Balance: -$1.0 Billion (Net Debt position subtracted from DCF value)

Valuation Overview Table (MRVL)#

Market Price as of Nov 4, 2026: $157.85 | Shares Outstanding: 0.900 Billion | Market Cap: $142.0 Billion

Valuation Case	Starting TTM Owner Earnings	Growth Rate ($g$, Y1–5)	Intrinsic Value per Share	Market Price vs. Value
Conservative	$0.9 Billion	7.5%	$16.88	Price 835.0% above value
Base Case	$0.9 Billion	15.0%	$25.90	Price 509.4% above value
Optimistic	$0.9 Billion	19.0%	$32.29	Price 388.9% above value

Margin of Safety: -509.4% (The prevailing market price of $157.85 traded 509.4% above the base intrinsic value of $25.90 per share).
Reverse DCF Insights: At a price of $157.85, the market priced in an implied owner-earnings compound growth rate of 50.8% annually for 5 years, fading to 2.5%, at a 10.0% discount rate. This benchmark dramatically exceeds MRVL's historical 10-year base owner-earnings growth rate of 15.0%.
Verification Status: DOUBLE VERIFIED. SEC XBRL primary inputs reconciled with independent database and Yahoo Finance sources within 1.5%.
Investor Behavior Analysis: Dan Bin executed a disciplined valuation exit. (Inferred Motive: With market pricing requiring 50.8% annual cash flow expansion, MRVL's share price disconnected from underlying owner-earnings cash flows ($25.90), prompting a total sale to harvest capital gains).

Subsection B: Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — 64% Trim#

Oriental Harbor trimmed its stake in AMD by 64%, liquidating ~$97.8 million while retaining a $56.0 million residual holding.

10-Year Historical Financial Trajectory (AMD)#

Figures in US$ Billions (Fiscal Years ended late December)

Period	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Total Capex	D&A	Stock Comp	Owner Earnings (Maintenance Capex)
FY2016	$4.3	-$0.5	$0.1	$0.1	$0.1	$0.1	-$0.1
FY2017	$5.3	-$0.0	$0.0	$0.1	$0.1	$0.1	-$0.2
FY2018	$6.5	$0.3	$0.0	$0.2	$0.2	$0.1	-$0.3
FY2019	$6.7	$0.3	$0.5	$0.2	$0.2	$0.2	$0.1
FY2020	$9.8	$2.5	$1.1	$0.3	$0.2	$0.3	$0.6
FY2021	$16.4	$3.2	$3.5	$0.3	$0.3	$0.4	$2.8
FY2022	$23.6	$1.3	$3.6	$0.5	$0.4	$1.1	$2.0
FY2023	$22.7	$0.9	$1.7	$0.5	$3.2	$1.4	-$0.3
FY2024	$25.8	$1.6	$3.0	$0.6	$2.9	$1.4	$1.0
FY2025	$34.6	$4.3	$7.7	$1.0	$2.8	$1.6	$5.1
TTM (2026-09-26)	$45.4	$7.6	$9.1	$2.1	N/A	$2.0	$5.1

Balance Sheet & Net Cash Calculation (AMD)#

Cash and Marketable Securities: $15.8 Billion
Total Debt: $7.1 Billion
Net Cash Balance: +$8.7 Billion (Net Cash position added to DCF value)

Valuation Overview Table (AMD)#

Market Price as of Nov 4, 2026: $480.63 | Shares Outstanding: 1.632 Billion | Market Cap: $784.6 Billion

Valuation Case	Starting TTM Owner Earnings	Growth Rate ($g$, Y1–5)	Intrinsic Value per Share	Market Price vs. Value
Conservative	$5.1 Billion	7.5%	$61.08	Price 686.9% above value
Base Case	$5.1 Billion	15.0%	$88.98	Price 440.2% above value
Optimistic	$5.1 Billion	19.0%	$108.74	Price 342.0% above value

Margin of Safety: -440.2% (The prevailing market price of $480.63 traded 440.2% above the base intrinsic value of $88.98 per share).
Reverse DCF Insights: At $480.63, the market implied an owner-earnings growth rate of 50.0% annually for 5 years, compared to AMD's historical 10-year base growth rate of 15.0%.
Verification Status: SINGLE-SOURCE ESTIMATE / NOT VERIFIED. Classified as single-source because the secondary independent source lacked complete historical period financial data necessary for dual reconciliation.
Investor Behavior Analysis: Dan Bin aggressively locked in profits on AMD. (Inferred Motive: Realizing $97.8 million in gains removed capital from a position where market pricing demanded continuous 50% annual owner-earnings growth).

Subsection C: Apple Inc. (AAPL) — New Core Entry#

Oriental Harbor established a new core allocation in Apple Inc., buying $91.4 million in equity (6.2% portfolio share).

10-Year Historical Financial Trajectory (AAPL)#

Figures in US$ Billions (Fiscal Years ended late September)

Period	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Total Capex	D&A	Stock Comp	Owner Earnings (Maintenance Capex)
FY2017	$229.2	$48.4	$64.2	$12.5	$10.2	$4.8	$49.2
FY2018	$265.6	$59.5	$77.4	$13.3	$10.9	$5.3	$61.2
FY2019	$260.2	$55.3	$69.4	$10.5	$12.5	$6.1	$52.8
FY2020	$274.5	$57.4	$80.7	$7.3	$11.1	$6.8	$66.5
FY2021	$365.8	$94.7	$104.0	$11.1	$11.3	$7.9	$85.0
FY2022	$394.3	$99.8	$122.2	$10.7	$11.1	$9.0	$102.4
FY2023	$383.3	$97.0	$110.5	$11.0	$11.5	$10.8	$88.8
FY2024	$391.0	$93.7	$118.3	$9.4	$11.4	$11.7	$97.1
FY2025	$416.2	$112.0	$111.5	$12.7	$11.7	$12.9	$86.9
FY2026 / TTM	$478.8	$132.2	$145.1	$9.0	$13.4	$13.8	$122.3

Balance Sheet & Net Cash Calculation (AAPL)#

Cash and Marketable Securities: $136.9 Billion
Total Debt: $78.1 Billion
Net Cash Balance: +$58.8 Billion (Net Cash position added to DCF value)

Valuation Overview Table (AAPL)#

Market Price as of Nov 4, 2026: $351.65 | Shares Outstanding: 14.532 Billion | Market Cap: $5,110.2 Billion

Valuation Case	Starting TTM Owner Earnings	Growth Rate ($g$, Y1–5)	Intrinsic Value per Share	Market Price vs. Value
Conservative	$122.3 Billion	4.6%	$133.38	Price 163.6% above value
Base Case	$122.3 Billion	9.3%	$170.71	Price 106.0% above value
Optimistic	$122.3 Billion	13.3%	$210.98	Price 66.7% above value

Margin of Safety: -106.0% (The market price of $351.65 traded 106.0% above the base intrinsic value of $170.71 per share).
Reverse DCF Insights: At $351.65, the market implied an owner-earnings growth rate of 23.1% annually for 5 years, compared to Apple's historical 10-year base owner-earnings growth rate of 9.3%.
Verification Status: DOUBLE VERIFIED. All primary filing inputs matched secondary sources within 1.5%.
Investor Behavior Analysis: Dan Bin initiated a position in Apple despite the stock trading at a premium to strict quantitative owner-earnings intrinsic value ($170.71). (Inferred Motive: This buy demonstrates modern Buffett discipline—paying a quality premium for pristine balance sheet cash, consumer ecosystem lock-in, and shareholder-friendly capital returns).

5. Track Record: The 13F-Clone Performance vs. S&P 500#

Clone Methodology#

To evaluate the historical performance of Oriental Harbor's U.S. portfolio selections, DeepValues Research executed a standard 13F clone backtest. The strategy purchases reported U.S. long common stock holdings weighted by reported value on the close of the first trading day following the SEC public filing date. Positions are held until the subsequent filing disclosure. All returns are dividend-adjusted and benchmarked directly against the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

Time Horizon & Data Caveat#

While institutional backtests prefer 10-year data windows, historical SEC 13F filing availability for Oriental Harbor Investment Master Fund spans 1.9 years (covering 9 sequential quarterly filings from December 4, 2024 to November 4, 2026).

Performance Comparison Table#

Tracking Window: Dec 4, 2024 to Nov 4, 2026 (1.9 Years)

Performance Metric	Oriental Harbor 13F Clone	S&P 500 Index (SPY)	Relative Difference
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)	6.4%	14.3%	-7.9 pts/yr
Total Cumulative Return	+12.7%	+29.2%	-16.5 pts
Maximum Drawdown (Month-End)	-25.9%	-8.2%	-17.7 pts

Annual Performance Breakdown#

2024 (Partial Window): 13F Clone -3.6% vs. SPY -3.2%
2025 (Full Calendar Year): 13F Clone +29.0% vs. SPY +17.7% (Outperformed benchmark by +11.3 percentage points)
2026 (Partial Year to Nov 4): 13F Clone -9.4% vs. SPY +13.4%

Behavioral Characteristics#

The clone portfolio displays high concentration (averaging 13 positions, with top 10 positions representing 96.8% of reported assets) and elevated quarterly turnover (averaging 23.1% quarterly clone turnover). This aggressive concentration in high-beta semiconductor and AI hardware equities generated strong outperformance during technology momentum phases (2025), but led to steeper drawdowns (-25.9%) during semiconductor sector pullbacks.

13F Clone Limitations#

Clone returns do not reflect the fund's actual total returns or net asset value (NAV). Form 13F disclosures exclude domestic Chinese A-shares (such as Moutai), offshore cash reserves, non-U.S. listings, short positions, options contracts, fixed income, and intra-quarter execution. Furthermore, regulatory holdings are reported with up to a 45-day lag.

6. What a Patient Investor Can Learn#

1. Enforcing Discipline on Reverse DCF Exuberance#

Oriental Harbor's complete liquidation of Marvell Technology (MRVL) and 64% trim of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) illustrate classic sell-discipline. When reverse DCF analysis reveals that market stock prices require ~50% compound annual owner-earnings growth over five years—against historical base growth rates of 15%—market prices have detached from conservative fundamental cash flow realities. Realizing profits into speculative growth pricing protects portfolios against eventual multiple compression.

2. Balancing Pure Value DCF with Business Quality#

The initiation of a $91.4 million core position in Apple Inc. (AAPL) illustrates how value investors balance strict DCF intrinsic value metrics with qualitative economic moat analysis. Although Apple traded at a premium to its base owner-earnings value ($170.71), Bin’s allocation reflects Warren Buffett’s principle that business quality, exceptional returns on invested capital, ecosystem durability, and capital return discipline can justify buying a wonderful company at a fair price.

3. Managing Portfolio Concentration Risks#

Oriental Harbor’s strategy—allocating 98.5% of reported U.S. equity into just 10 positions—underscores the dual nature of conviction. Highly concentrated technology portfolios can deliver major outperformance during market expansions (+29.0% in 2025 vs. 17.7% for SPY), but also experience higher volatility and sharp drawdowns (-25.9% max drawdown) during cyclical market corrections.

7. Key Numbers#

Reported U.S. Portfolio Value: $1.47 Billion (down from $1.65 Billion in Q2 2026).
Total U.S. Equity Holdings: 13 positions (Top 10 holdings account for 98.5% of value).
Largest Individual Holding: GOOG (Alphabet Inc.) at $395.3 Million (26.9% portfolio share).
Q3 Net Capital Activity: Net seller of -$114.7 Million ($217.1M bought vs. $331.8M sold).
Largest Exit: MRVL (100% sold, ~$130.8M previous value; Margin of Safety: -509.4%).
Largest Trim: AMD (64% shares trimmed, ~$97.8M realized; Margin of Safety: -440.2%).
Largest New Entry: AAPL ($91.4 Million allocation, 6.2% portfolio share).
13F Clone Performance (1.9 Years): 6.4% CAGR vs. 14.3% S&P 500 CAGR (-7.9% annual difference).

8. Closing Note on 13F Limitations & Legal Disclaimer#

13F Filing Limitations#

SEC Form 13F disclosures reflect snapshot long positions held as of September 30, 2026, reported up to 45 days after quarter-end. Form 13F reports exclude non-U.S. equity positions (such as Oriental Harbor's domestic Chinese A-share holdings), cash reserves, short positions, fixed-income securities, options contracts, and portfolio trades executed following quarter-end.

Legal Disclaimer#

This analytical report is published by DeepValues Research for educational, informational, and academic research purposes only. Nothing contained herein constitutes financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Investors must perform independent research and consult certified financial advisors before making investment decisions.